Climate Variability And Cocoa Production: The Implications Of Micro-Adaptation Measures On Cocoa Farmers’ Income

ABSTRACT Climate change is having severe impacts on agricultural production and food security, with yields from rain-fed agriculture in developing countries projected to halve by 2020. One crop vulnerable to the effect of climate variability and change is cocoa (Theobroma cacao). Though there are extensive studies on how the cocoa sector can adapt to the adverse effects of climate variability and change, little empirical research has been carried out on the consequences of micro-adaptation measures on the net farm income of cocoa farmers. The study sought to analyse the effects of micro-adaptation measures to variability in two key climatic variables (temperature and rainfall), on cocoa farmers’ net farm income. The study used multi-stage sampling techniques to purposely select 180 cocoa farmers and 6 key informants in six (6) communities in the Dormaa West District for primary data collection. The district has high reliance on agriculture, two major cocoa producing districts, increasing deforestation in the district that influences the local climate, and it is located in the transitional agro-ecological zone of Ghana. A 25-year period (1991 – 2015) climate and cocoa output data were obtained for trend analysis, determination of coefficient of variation (CV) and modelling with linear regression model. The study found out that there has been approximately 28% and 1% variability in average rainfall and temperature trends respectively for the period 1991 to 2015, which accounted for 56.7% variations in cocoa outputs. Results of a random effect model showed that application of micro-adaptation measures such as improved seed varieties, use of organic manure and increased farm size have significant positive impacts on cocoa farm net income. The study recommends the collaboration of the Forestry Commission with the Ghana Cocoa Board to promote these micro-adaptation measures and ensure programs that discourages forest depletion in the district to help boost the local average rainfall.