Grain price seasonality

ABSTRACT

Recent studies on food prices in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) found that food price seasonality in SSA remains 

an issue. In addition to it causing price risk, and, hence, limiting market participation among farmers and 

traders, the continued existence of substantial price seasonality implies that interventions that improve 

food market development are needed. Using a dataset that is unique for Nigeria, we contribute to this 

literature through measurement of the extent of seasonality in grain prices in a set of markets in Kebbi 

state. We believe that our focus on seasonality at the state, rather than country or continental, level can 

provide needed insights that are useful for identification of areas deserving stakeholder focus for rural 

development related initiatives. A main contribution is that we find that there are large enough differences 

in price behavior across the assessed markets to justify this more localized analysis.

Keywords: grain prices, seasonality, market structure, Kebbi state, Nigeria

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract .............................................................................................................................................................iii

1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................................1

2. Review of literature: food price seasonality, trade, and storage...................................................................2

2.1 Food price seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa and in northern Nigeria ............................................... 2

2.2 Trade, marketing, and food price seasonality ..................................................................................... 3

2.3 Competitive storage theory and seasonality....................................................................................... 3

2.4 Market infrastructural development to reduce seasonality ............................................................... 4

3. Study area and data........................................................................................................................................5

4. Price series characteristics .............................................................................................................................7

4.1 Data plots............................................................................................................................................. 8

4.2 Summary statistics............................................................................................................................. 10

4.3 Seasonal regressions.......................................................................................................................... 11

4.4 Annual ranges of prices ..................................................................................................................... 12

4.5 Frequency of directional changes in price series............................................................................... 13

5. Concluding remarks......................................................................................................................................14

References........................................................................................................................................................16

Appendix...........................................................................................................................................................18

LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.1. Summary statistics for Kebbi state grain prices (Naira/kg), 2000 to 2016 ......................................11

Table 4.2. Results for seasonality regressions for sorghum prices in Kebbi state, 2000 to 2016 ....................12

Table 4.3. Average difference between annual maximum and minimum Kebbi state grain prices, Naira/kg, 

2000 to 2016 .....................................................................................................................................13

Table 4.4. Number of directional changes in Kebbi state grain price series, 2000 to 2016.............................14

Appendix Table 1. Differences between annual maximum and minimum grain prices for Argungu, Birnin 

Kebbi, Doduru, Mahuta, Suru, and Yeldu markets, 2000 to 2016, Naira/kg ....................................18

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3.1. Map of Kebbi state markets included in the analysis.......................................................................6

Figure 4.1. Grain price series plots for Argungu and Birnin Kebbi markets, 2000 to 2016................................8

Figure 4.2. Grain price series plots for Dodoru and Mahuta markets, 2000 to 2016 ........................................9

Figure 4.3. Grain price series plots for Suru and Yeldu markets, 2000 to 2016...............................................10