Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on oil Export Performance in Nigeria (1980-2018)

This study was designed to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the oil export performance in Nigeria from the year 1980 to 2018, and in the research, the use of secondary time series data was adopted. The research focuses on determining the cause and impact of exchange rate fluctuation and inflation rate on the oil export price. Its focus on this objective is to determine the relationship trend between exchange rate, inflation rate and oil export price. The unit root test was used to check for the order of integration; the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL) was used for the short run regression; the ARDL bounds test was used to determine if there is a long run relationship. Some suggestions and recommendations were made based on the findings including the fact that the government should create incentive such as loans subsidy to small scale industries, thereby encouraging them to process domestic goods into processed goods that will help boost our export. 

TABLE OF CONTEN

Title pagei

Approval pageii

Dedicationiii

Acknowledgementiv

Abstractv

Table of contentvi-viii

CHAPTER ONE 

1.0Introduction

1.1Background of study1-3

1.2Statement of problem3-4

1.3 Objective of the study4

1.4Research questions4

1.5Research hypothesis5

1.6Significance of study5-6

1.7Scope of study 7

1.8Organization of study7

1.9Limitation of study      7

CHAPTER TWO - LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Conceptual framework

2.1.1 Concept of exchange rate8-10

2.1.2 Types of exchange rate10-11

2.1.3 Causes of exchange rate fluctuation11-14

2.1.4 Concept of oil export trade14-15

2.2 Theoretical framework

2.2.1 Theories of exchange rate15-18

2.3 Empirical framework18-26

2.4 Gap to fill27

CHAPTER THREE - RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Theoretical framework28

3.2 Model specification28-29

3.3 Methodology29

3.4 “A Priori” Expectation29-30

3.5 Estimation technique30

3.6 Source of data30

 CHAPTER FOUR - DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

4.0 Introduction31

4.1 Data presentation 31-33

4.2 Data analysis and result interpretation

4.2.1 Descriptive statistics of data 33-35

4.2.2 Unit root test36

4.2.3 Auto regressive distributed lag36-37

4.2.4 Interpretation of table 437-38

4.2.5 Co-efficient of determination (R2) and Adjusted R238

4.2.6 Cointegration test (bounds test)38-39

4.2.7 Long run coefficients39-40

CHAPTER FIVE - SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.0 Introduction41

5.1 Summary41

5.2 Conclusion 41-42

5.3 Recommendation 42

References43-47

Appendix 48-60