The Oil Sector Vis-À-Vis the Agricultural Sector; The Nigerian Experience (1981-2007

ABSTRACT

This study aims at evaluating the oil sector vis- a vis the agricultural sector in Nigeria from 1981-2007. The role of agriculture in the Nigerian society has been quite significant even in the pre-colonial times. The attractiveness of the Nigerian agricultural sector to the colonialist largely formed the basis for the development of the railway system from the north to the coast through the eastern and western of the country given that there was the need to evacuate agricultural produce from the hinterland to the coasts for onward shipment to Europe as raw material to feed British industries. The agricultural sector used to be the mainstay of the Nigerian economy. It provided for the nation, generated revenue and foreign exchange earnings for the government, supplied raw materials to the industrial sector, generated employment and contributed over 50% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This occurred until the 1970’s when the oil sector came in and took over from agriculture in such a way that there was a rapid decline in the agricultural sector output. Nigeria became solely dependent on the oil sector for its revenue such that policies that were formulated were usually in favor of the oil sector. This obviously has led to the neglect of the agricultural sector as all focuses are on the oil sector. This research work aims at determining the relationship between the oil sector and the agricultural sector, the impact of the oil sector and the effects of exchange rate on the agricultural sector and to find out ways to solve the problem, and make some recommendations that can bring about positive change. 

TABLE OF CONTENT

CHAPTER ONE – INTRODUCTION…………………………………….1

1.1 Background of the study……………………………………………….1

1.2 Statement of the problem………………………………………………5

1.3 Objective of the study………………………………………………….6

1.4 Research hypothesis……………………………………………………6

1.5 Significance of the study……………………………………………….7

1.6 Scope and limitation……………………………………………………7

CHAPTER TWO – LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………….8

2.1.1 Theoretical literature…………………………………………………8

2.1.2 Crude oil and the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product………………..10

2.1.3 Crude oil as a source of federally collectable revenue and source of energy……………………………………………………………………..13

2.1.4 Petroleum and Balance of Payment………………………………….15

2.1.5 Historical development of agriculture and agricultural sector in Nigeria17

2.1.6 The impact of petroleum production on Nigeria agricultural policy………………………………………………………………………22

2.1.7 The effects of oil production on policy maker’s perception of the role of agriculture in Nigeria……………………………………………………..23

2.1.8 The impact of oil revenue on the scope and character of the government’s intervention in agricultural development…...............................................…..     27

2.1.9 Past effort at revamping agriculture in Nigeria…………………………29

CHAPTER THREE – RESEARCH METHODOLOGY…………………….34

3.1 Research design………………………………………………………….34

3.2 Research methodology…………………………………………………..34

3.3 Model specification……………………………………………………..35

3.4 Method of evaluation……………………………………………………37

CHAPTER FOUR - DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS………….40

4.1 Data presentation and analysis of result…………………………………40

4.2 Economic A priori expectation test……………………………………..41

4.3 Evaluation Based On Statistical Criteria (First Order Test)…………..42

4.3.1 T- test………………………………………………………………….42

4.3.2 F- test………………………………………………………………….43

4.4 The coefficient of determination R2…………………………………….44

4.5 Economic Criteria (Second Order Test)………………………………..45

4.5.1 Autocorrelation test…………………………………………………..45

CHAPTER FIVE – SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………….47

5.1 Summary………………………………………………………………47

5.2 Recommendation……………………………………………………..49

5.3 Conclusion…………………………………………………………….50