Afghanistan: A Future Threat to US Interest Due to Durrand Line

ABSTRACT

The result of this paper have fully addressed the hypothesis--the perceptions of the four national “actors--Afghanistan, India, Iran, and Pakistan,” regarding the issue of Durand Line as the international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, differ significantly and will
eventually lead to extreme armed conflict resulting in an “all-out-war,” wherein the involvement of Afghanistan in this issue can be considered as Afghanistan becoming a future threat to US Interest. The analysis uses the twelve step Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) to indicate the most likely “alternate future” as--Alternate future number 1: Pakistan would continue to renegotiate with Afghanistan for a peaceful settlement of the disputed land, wherein India and Iran would support the renegotiated peaceful settlement approach of Afghanistan-- within the most likely sub-scenario--Sub-scenario 1: US support Pakistan’s approach of renegotiated peaceful settlement of the issue--of the major future scenario--Scenario 1: US accept Durand Line as an international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and therefore support any approach taken by Pakistan to retain the disputed land. Due to the development of events, the above future would rapidly transpose into other “alternate futures” both within and outside the major “Scenario 1,” wherein the prolongation of the issue would escalate into extreme armed conflict resulting in an “all-out-war” with the possibility of the release of WMD. Moreover, when one compares the issues rising from Afghanistan’s involvement in the dispute with the elements of the US Interests, it is observed that all most all of the elements are affected or exploited in some form or another. On the other hand, the determination of the threat indicates that Afghanistan’s involvement in the Durand Line issue would have an adverse effect on the US Interest as all the four types of threats--perceived, actual, direct, and indirect—would exist in the near future.

CONTENTS

LIST OF MAPS
Map Showing Durand Line …………………………………………………. 22
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Re-negotiation for Peaceful Settlement (ranking alternate future).86-87
Table 2: The Status Quo (ranking alternate future).……………..................88-89
Table 3: Use of Force (ranking alternate future).…………………………...90-91
Table 4: Consequences of Alternate Future number 1--Pakistan would continue to re-negotiate with Afghanistan for a peaceful settlement of the disputed land, wherein India and Iran would support the approaches of Afghanistan……………………………………………………..93
Table 5: Consequences of Alternate Future number 3--Pakistan would continue to re-negotiate with Afghanistan for a peaceful settlement of the disputed land, wherein India would support the re-negotiated peaceful settlement approach of Afghanistan but Iran would stay neutral…….95
Table 6: Consequences of Alternate Future number 7--Pakistan would continue to re-negotiate with Afghanistan for a peaceful settlement of the disputed land, wherein Iran would support the re-negotiated settlement approach of Afghanistan but India would stay neutral……………..97
Table 7: Consequences of Alternate Future number 2--Pakistan with the support of Iran would continue to re-negotiate with Afghanistan
for a peaceful settlement of the disputed land, wherein India would support the re-negotiated peaceful settlement approach of Afghanistan……….99
Table 8: Consequences of Alternate Future number 9—Pakistan continue to re-negotiate with Afghanistan for a peaceful settlement
of the disputed land, wherein India and Iran would stay neutral……………...101
Table 9: Determination of the threat to US interest due to Afghanistan’s involvement in the issue of Durand line……………………………………….116
ABSTRACT …………………………………………………………………………………. viii

CHAPTERS
INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………… 1
LAMP TECHNIQUE …………………………………………………………….4-113
Step 1: Determine the issue for which you are trying to predict the most likely future ……………………………………………………………. 4
Step 2: Specify the national “actors” involved ……………………………… 5
Step 3: Perform an in-depth study of how each national actor perceives the issue in question …………………………………………….7-63
AN OVERVIEW OF AFGHANISTAN …………..…………....... 8-18
A Synopsis………………………………….………………... 8
Geographical Information …………………………………...11
Climatic Condition ………………………………………......11
Administrative Information ………………………………......12
Natural Resources and Vegetation ………………………….12
Ethnic Groups ……………………………………………….13
Economic Condition, Financial Status and Commerce …......14
Foreign Relations …………………………….…….………..15
Security Forces …………………………………………........16
Current Security Issues …………………………..………….16
Analysis on Overview of Afghanistan—Problems Identified...18
AN OVERVIEW OF DURAND LINE ………………………….19-37
Historical Overview and Importance ………………..……....19
Afghanistan’s Perceptions, Intentions, and Influence ……… 24
Pakistan’s Perceptions, Intentions, and Influence ………..… 26

India’s Perceptions, Intentions, and Influence ……………... 28
US’s Perceptions, Intentions, and Influence ……………..… 30
Iran’s Perceptions, Intentions, and Influence ……………… 31
Legal Examination of the Dispute in Relation to Int’l Law .. 32
Analysis on Overview of Durand Line—Problems Identified..36
US INTEREST…………………………………………………...38-63
US National Interest ……….…………………………….… 38
US National Security Strategy …………………………….. 39
Supplements of US National Security Strategy …………….43
US International Strategy ………………………………….. 46
USAID–US State Department Strategic Plan …..………….. 47
US Interest in Afghanistan ……………………………….... 48
US Mission to Afghanistan and its Policy ……………….... 50
US Assistance to Afghanistan ……………………………...52
Current and Projected US National Security Threats ………57
Possible Future Threats to US Interest in Afghanistan ….... 59
Step 4: Specify all possible course of action for each actor ………….....63-69
Possible courses of action of Afghanistan ……………….... 63
Possible courses of action of Pakistan …………………….. 65
Possible courses of action of India ………………………... 66
Possible courses of action of Iran ………………………..... 68
Step 5: Determine the major scenarios within which you will compare the alternate futures …………………….………………………………..69-82

Scenario 1: US accept Durand Line as an international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and therefore support any activities conducted by Pakistan to retain the disputed land.………………………………………....................70
Scenario 2: US reject Durand Line as an international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and therefore supports any activities conducted by Afghanistan to regain the disputed land.…….72
Scenario 3: US adopts neutral stance in the issue of the Durand Line, and therefore supports both Afghanistan and
Pakistan to peacefully resolve the issue of the disputed land.…........75
Analysis of the three Scenarios ……………………………………..78
Sub-scenario 1 of Scenario 1: Renegotiated Peaceful Settlement…..79
Sub-scenario 2 of Scenario 1: The Status Quo …………….……….80
Sub-scenario 3 of Scenario 1: Use of Force ………………………...81
Step 6: Calculate the total number of permutations of possible “alternate futures” for each scenario ……………………………………......83
Step 7: Perform a pair wise comparison of all “alternate futures” within the scenario to determine their relative probability ………………….84
Step 8: Rank the “alternate futures” for each scenario from the highest relative probability to the lowest based on the number of “votes” received………………………………………………………..85-91
Table 1: Re-negotiation for Peaceful Settlement …………….......86-87
Table 2: The Status Quo ………………………………………….88-89
Table 3: Use of Force ……………………………………….….....90-91
Step 9: Assuming that each future occurs, analyze each “alternate future” in terms of its consequences for the issue in question .92-102
Alternate Future 1…………………………………………………….92
Table 4………………………………………………………..93

Alternate Future 3…………………………………………………….94
Table 5………………………………………………………..95
Alternate Future 7…………………………………………………….96
Table 6………………………………………………………..97
Alternate Future 2…………………………………………………….98
Table 7………………………………………………………..99
Alternate Future 9…………………………………………………...100
Table 8……………………………………………………….101
Step 10: Determine the “focal events” that must occur in our present in order to bring about a given “alternate future” ……………………...….102-104
Alternate Future 1……………………………………………………103
Alternate Future 3……………………………………………………103
Alternate Future 7……………………………………………………103
Alternate Future 2……………………………………………………104
Alternate Future 9…………………………………………………....104
Step 11: Develop indicators for the “focal events”……………………..104-111
Alternate Future 1……………………………………………………105
Alternate Future 3……………………………………………………106
Alternate Future 7……………………………………………………107
Alternate Future 2……………………………………………………109
Alternate Future 9…………………………………………………....110
Step 12: State the potential of a given alternate future to “transpose” into another alternate future. ……………………………………….…...111-113
Alternate Future 1……………………………………………………112

Alternate Future 3……………………………………………………112
Alternate Future 7……………………………………………………113
Alternate Future 2……………………………………………………113
Alternate Future 9…………………………………………………....113
CONCLUSION ………………………………………………………………….......114
BIBLIOGRAPHY …………………………………………………………………...120