IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DURUM WHEAT(Triticum turgidum L var durum) PRODUCTION: ANALYSIS OF FUTURE ADAPTATION MEASURES IN THE CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY OF ETHIOPIA

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Abstract:

Assessing impact of climate change on durum wheat production and analysis of future adaptation measures bears enormous advantages in general and in Ethiopia in particular, owing to the country’s low adaptative capacity.The analysis shows that climate change will reduce durum wheat production in Central Rift Valley through time horizons i.e till the year 2030s, 2050s and 2080s.This study was conducted to characterize climate, assess its impact on durum wheat production and identify management options for the climate future dates in Ada'a district of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Daily climate data, normalized large scale Hadley Centre coupled Model version 3 model predictors and crop and soil data were analysed. Past and present climate variability characterization was assessed through seasonal rainfall amount, monthly rainfall statistics and dry spell length using R analytical tool and INSTAT climate guide. Temperature variability was examined in terms of pattern and trend. For future projection, Climate change scenarios for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures were developed for the period 2001-2099 by using the Hadley Centre coupled Model version 3 under A2a and B2a Special Report on Emission Scenarios using Statistical Downscaling Model version 4.1software. Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer, crop model was used to simulate future changes in durum wheat yield (Ude and Yerer cultivars) and to determine best adaptation measures in Ada'a area under modified environment. Seasonal rainfall amount was found to decrease with significance for 42 years period (P

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DURUM WHEAT(Triticum turgidum L var durum) PRODUCTION: ANALYSIS OF FUTURE ADAPTATION MEASURES IN THE CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY OF ETHIOPIA

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