The Impact Of Animal Diseases And Exchange Rate On Sudanese Sheep Exports (2000- 2013)

Abstract

This study was conducted to identify the most important causes of the

fluctuation in Sudanese sheep export during the period 2000-2013 and to determine

the quantities of sheep imported and the importing countries during the same

period. Secondary data were collected from Department of Statistics and

Information, Sudan Customs- General Administration of Quarantines and Meat

Health Ministry of livestock Fisheries and Range lands- and the reports of the

Central Bank of Sudan.

Descriptive statistics was used to calculate the means and deviations. Whereas

analytical statistics in terms of Pearson Correlation Test was used to figure out the

relationship between the variables. Linear regression was used to determine the

impact of the variables on each other and then forecasting by creating a regression

equation using Statistical Package for Social Science program.

The study revealed that diseases affect the sheep export and lead to its

fluctuation. The relationship between the quantity exported and the rejected

is moderate ( the correlation coefficient was 0.57).

The study also revealed that there is a strong correlation (correlation = 0.83

coefficient) between the US$ exchange rate and sheep export. The coefficient of

determination was 53% which means that the average dollar exchange rate affects

the amount of sheep export by 53%. The study also revealed that the simple

regression equation cannot be used to predict the quantity of sheep exported despite the strong association between the two variables due to the presence of other factors beside the exchange rate affecting sheep export by 47%.

The quantity of sheep export is also affected by time. The adjusted coefficient of determination was 39%, but we cannot predict the quantity exported based on time using simple regression equation. Saudi Arabia is the main Sudanese sheep market where it imports 99% of the export sheep.

The study recommended control of animal disease as tools to enhance sheep export and adoption of flexible exchange rate policy.