Abstract
Economic activities in Lake Victoria Basin such as agriculture, sh-
ing, mining and transportation depend's heavily on the climatic
conditions of the Lake and its Basin. Global climatic change caused
by Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG) has resulted in a disruptive and
erratic weather pattern for these economic activities. This unpre-
dictable weather variations is responsible for loss of life and destruc-
tion of property. The primary cause of this negative impact is lack
of a reliable information addressing climatic variation within the
region. The main objective of this project was to identify a suit-
able time series model that can be used in predicting, forecasting
and analyzing weather variations.The Box jenskin methodology is
used to build ARIMA model for rainfall and temperature. Data ob-
tained from the Kenya Meteorological Department's Kisumu, Lwak,
and Migori for the years 2007 to 2014 produced An ARIMA (2,0,1)
model for rainfall is using R package. Data for the years 2011 to
2013 were estimated using values from the years 2008 to 2010 and
the relationship showed a strong positive relationship indicating a
high accuracy level on predictability by the model.
ORYEMA, R (2021). Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin. Afribary. Retrieved from https://track.afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin
ORYEMA, ROBERT "Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin" Afribary. Afribary, 07 May. 2021, https://track.afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin. Accessed 23 Nov. 2024.
ORYEMA, ROBERT . "Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin". Afribary, Afribary, 07 May. 2021. Web. 23 Nov. 2024. < https://track.afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin >.
ORYEMA, ROBERT . "Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin" Afribary (2021). Accessed November 23, 2024. https://track.afribary.com/works/arima-model-for-forecasting-of-monthly-rainfall-and-temperature-in-the-lake-victoria-basin