Statistics Research Papers/Topics

MODELLING AND FORECASTING MATERNAL MORTALITY AND LIVE BIRTHS – USING VARX MODELS: CASE STUDY OF THE UPPER WEST REGIONAL HOSPITAL

The Wa Regional Hospital’s live births and maternal mortality were analysed and forecasted in this study. The data were obtained from the Regional Hospital and covered the period from January 2009 to June 2020. This study applied Vector Autoregressive with exogenous variable to model the interdependent and dynamic structure that exists between the endogenous variables (live births and maternal mortality) and the exogenous variable (maternal age). Also, the dynamic structure of the observed ...

MODERN AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AND TECHNOLOGIES ON MAIZE PRODUCTION: ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LAWRA MUNICIPALITY OF THE UPPER WEST REGION OF GHANA

The main aim of the study was to examine the influence of modern agricultural practices and technologies on maize production. Data on yields for five different farming seasons and other attributes of Climate Smart Agriculture Technologies were obtained from three communities in the Lawra Municipality. The study identified a six factor solution which explained the correlation in the observed data without substantial loss of information. Multinomial Logistic Regression and Mixed Effect Linear R...

TRANSMUTED TYPE I GENERAL EXPONENTIAL FAMILY OF DISTRIBUTIONS

The Transmuted Type I General Exponential family of distributions as a new generator is proposed and studied. The new generator has a closed form and therefore very tractable, its hazard rate function has the flexibility to model different kinds of the bathtub shapes. Also, a comprehensive description of the statistical properties of the new generator including explicit expressions for the ordinary and incomplete moments, moments generating function, order statistics and stochastic ordering p...

TWEEDIE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF DETERMINANTS OF BIRTH WEIGHT IN NAVRONGO

This study models infant birth weight and investigate maternal predictors using lifetime data by taking into account the non-zero probability of zero occurrences of the response variable. The birth weights were found to be positively skewed and leptokurtic in nature. The average birth weight was found to be 2.9898kg. In modelling the determinants of infant birth weight, the Tweedie regression model was compared with Gaussian, Gamma and inverse Gaussian regression models. The performance of th...

MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL FOR MODELING RAINFALL IN THE UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA

The economy of Ghana largely depends on agriculture for its growth. In Ghana, agricultural productivity largely relies on rainfall. This study seeks to explore the rainfall pattern using data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency from January 1999 to December 2019 for the Navrongo and Bolgatanga weather substations. A univariate two-state Markov switching autoregressive model was used to characterize the distinct seasonal regime behavior of the rainfall in the study area. The data sets were fo...

T-INVERSE EXPONENTIAL {Y} FAMILY OF DISTRIBUTIONS

Recently, statisticians have been exploring the generalization and extension of classes of distributions to make them more flexible for data analysis. There are a lot of data sets that are either extremely skewed, bimodal, bathtub or have heavy tails. However, inverse exponential distribution cannot model data sets that exhibit these features properly. In this study, a new family of inverse exponential distribution called T-inverse exponential {Y} family based on quantile function approach ha...

MODELING THE CLIMATIC DETERMINANTS OF MALARIA CASES USING POISSON SWITCHING REGRESSION MODEL

Malaria has become a common disease that affects the health of every household. The canker is expected to continue with its devastating effects for a long period given the absence of sufficient interventions to mitigate it. Several researches have been undertaken to investigate the pattern of malaria cases in Ghana. This study modeled the effects of climatic variables on monthly malaria cases in Wenchi Municipal using Poisson Switching Regression Model. Secondary data on malaria from January,...

MARKOV CHAIN MODELING OF PNEUMONIA CASES IN THE BUILSA NORTH MUNICIPALITY OF THE UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA

Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs. It causes inflammation of the alveoli making it fill with fluid, causing difficulty in breathing and reduces oxygen intake. It is the leading cause of deaths in children worldwide. In this study, secondary data on monthly pneumonia cases collected from the disease control unit from 2015 to 2020 of the Builsa North Municipality was modeled using discrete-time Markov chain modeling. The data was grouped into low, moderate and high states of the pneumonia ...

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF WEIGHT GAIN OF CHILDREN UNDER-FIVE YEARS IN THE KINTAMPO MUNICIPALITY, GHANA

The role of weight-for-age babies in the early childhood and its effects on later lives of children cannot be over emphasized. Birth weight according to Murthy (1991) is a key indicator of the incidence of infant mortality and thus, a reflection of the socio-economic development of a country. The main objective is to use statistical models to assess the change in weight of children over time and to investigate whether maternal characteristics such as marital status, educational level, religio...

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT RISKS OF CAR DRIVERS IN NORTHERN REGION, GHANA

The accident risks of drivers and the factors affecting the risks were analyzed using survival models. The data consisted detailed records of fatal accidents in the years 2007 - 2009, generated by the Motor Traffic and Transport Unit (MTTU) of the Ghana Police Service, Northern region. The data on fatal accidents contained 398 drivers. The objectives of the study included both analysis and explanation of driver accident risk factors and investigation of how survival modeling method can be use...

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS OF MALE AND FEMALE HIV/AIDS PATIENTS IN NORTHERN REGION - A KAPLAN & MEIER APPROACH

Acquired Immune deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a disease caused by a virus known as Human Immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This virus attacks a person's immune system (white blood cells) and as such weakens the immune system and making the person vulnerable to opportunistic diseases e.g. tuberculosis, diarrhoea, to mention a few. HIV was first diagnosed more than twenty years ago and up to now there is no known cure for the disease. The rate at which HIV is spreading in sub-Sahara Africa is so hi...

DETERMINANTS OF CD4 COUNT CHANGE IN PERSONS ON ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY FOR HIV/AIDS IN THE KASSENA-NANKANA EAST DISTRICT OF UPPER FAST REGION OF GHANA

HIV/AIDS was first recognized in the early 1980's and since then has affected humankind in different ways across all the continents. It has been a wake-up call to scientists, health experts, NGOs, individuals, and other stakeholders to handle such a menace since the virus depletes the CD4 T-lymphocytes which is a major cell of maintaining the body immune system against various infectious diseases. A secondary data of 142 persons living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy was obtained from...

MODELLING PRICE VOLATILITY OF THREE MAJOR CEREALS IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF GHANA

Cereals are important crops that feed over billions of households worldwide. They have been used extensively for both human consumption and feeding of livestock. In Ghana, cereals such as rice, maize and millet are staple food of great socio-economic importance and they contribute significantly to agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the economy of the country. In this study, we developed an ARIMA (p, q)-GARCH (m, s) model to model the volatility of the returns of rice, maize and mill...

MODELING HYDROTHERMAL POWER GENERATION SCHEDULING USING MIXED INTEGER LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Power production and distribution in Ghana is ever more becoming erratic and expensive, both for the power producer and the consumer. It is in this regard that an investigation of hydrothermal power generation scheduling is undertaken for Volta River Authority (VRA) of Ghana. The goal of the study was to determine an optimal power production schedule that meets daily load demands at minimum cost of production and also ascertain the marginal cost of producing electricity per day and therefore ...

ESTIMATION MAXIMIZATION CONCEPT OF ASSESSING RESIDUALS: A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELLING APPROACH

The main objective of this study was to apply estimation maximization concept to assess residuals through structural equation modelling. This was achieved through simulation setup. Data was obtained from test scores of some selected course lecturers of Kumasi Technical University to validate the results from the simulation. The results showed that the estimated residuals of the measurement errors using all three estimators correlate negatively with the estimated residuals associated with meas...


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