Statistical Analysis Of Revenue Contributions Of Some High Risk Goods At Tema Port

ABSTRACT

The study analyzed imports revenue contributions from six high-risk

commodities obtained from the Inspection and Control Services Company at

Tema port. The six items were Auto-parts, Rice, Computers and Accessories,

Household Electricals, Poultry Products and Used Clothing. The data covered five

years from 2004 to 2008. The objective was to obtain revenue estimates of these

six items. Another objective was to provide forecasts of yearly total revenue

based on the five years revenue data. In order to achieve these objectives, dummy

variable regression model and trend model were used.

Initial exploration of the data revealed that the revenue contribution of the

six items increased with increasing line items. It was observed that even though

the line item of rice was the least in the period, it contributed the highest to

revenue. The dummy variable model involved only three of the six initially

selected items. These three variables, which are Auto-parts, Rice, and Household

Electricals, were found to contribute significantly to the total revenue from the six

items. The model explained 86 percent of variation in revenue from the three

items.

Using a linear trend model, it was found that the average yearly total

revenue from import was expected to increase by an amount of $8,761,463.00

each year. By this pattern, the total yearly import revenue in 2011 was expected to

reach $129,600,314.00.

The findings of this study show that an outright ban on Auto-parts, Rice,

and Household Electricals, would not be in the interest of revenue mobilization.

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