Time Series Analysis on Marriage Registration in Ilorin, Kwara State (2000-2011) (A Case Study of Marriage, Registry of Social Welfare, Ilorin)

ABSTRACT

The study examined time series analysis on marriage registration in Ilorin, Kwara State between (2000 – 2011). The data used was collected from marriage registry, ministry of social welfare, Ilorin, Kwara State. Moving average, simple linear regression was used for the analysis. The result on trend value clearly show that, there is a steady decrease in the number of marriage from second half of the year 2002 up to January 2003, and from there, there was a shape increase in the number of marriage. Also trend of marriage contains seasonal variation, which have been smoothing by moving average method. Thus, the trend value appears to follow almost identical patterns during the corresponding month of the successive years. This indicated that Christmas and New Year festivals have influence on marriage as it can be seen on the trend values.

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page                                                              i

Certification                                                           ii

Dedication                                                             iii

Acknowledgement                                                  iv

Abstract                                                                v

Table of content                                                     vi

CHAPTER ONE 

1.0    Introduction                                                 1-2

 1.1    Types of marriage                                        2-4

1.2    Historical background of marriage registry    5-6

1.3    Statement of problems                                  7

1.4    aim and objectives of the study                     8

1.5    Significant of the study                                 8

1.6    Scope and limitation of the study                  8-9

1.7    Problems encountered                                   9

CHAPTER TWO

2.0       Literature  review                                          10

2.1    Introduction:                                                 10-16

CHAPTER THREE

Methodology and data presentation                       17

3.0    Introduction                                                 17

3.1    Sources of data                                             17-18

3.2    Presentation of data                                      18-19

3.4    method of analysis                                        24

3.4.1 Time series analysis                                      24

3.4.2 Components of time series                           25

3.5    Model used in the analysis                            25

3.6    Methods of estimating trend                          26

CHARTER FOUR

Analysis of data                                                     27

4.0    Introduction                                                 27

4.1    Moving average                                             27-33

4.2    Computation of seasonal index using percentage

moving average for marriage registration       34-38

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary of findings, conclusion and Recommendations 51

5.0    Summary of findings                                     51-52

5.1    Conclusion                                                   52-53

5.2    Recommendations                                        53

References                                                    54