TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SOME SELECTED NON OIL PRODUCE IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF CASH CROPS & LIVESTOCK)

ABSTRACT

          In the period of the 1970’s, Agriculture was the main stay of the Nigeria economy. The oil boom of 1970’s brought about a gradual shift from agriculture to crude oil making Nigeria to depend heavily on petroleum as main source of foreign exchange earnings. Agriculture sector which use to be the back bone of the economy was rendered competitive over time. The crux of this study is to analyze the revenue generated from selected non-oil produce in Nigeria. Data were obtained from secondary source mainly from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to determine model fitness; Time series graph was used to determine the behaviour of the data over time, forecast was also made for both cash crop and livestock for the next thirty years.

          The findings reveal that cash crops and livestock revenue has positive effect on the growth of Nigeria economy during the period under review (1981-2014), though the performance in terms of output level and revenue generation was below expectation. This study recommends the need to increase production in agricultural sector to ensure product availability for both local and export purpose. Also, there is need to complete the export processing zones in earnest to promote the establishment of export oriented firms that will produce solely for export market.

TABLE OF CONTENT

TITLE PAGE                                                                                  I

CERTIFICATION                                                                          II

DEDICATION                                                                                 III

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT                                                              IV

ABSTRACT                                                                                    VI

TABLE OF CONTENT                                                                            VII

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1            Importance of Non-Oil Export To The Nigeria Economy                 8

1.2            Background of the Study                                                                  12

1.3     Aims and Objectives of the Study                                           21

1.4     Objective of the Study                                                             21

1.5     Scope and Limitation of the Study                                          22

1.6     Definition of Term                                                                            22

1.7     Source of Data                                                                        23

CHAPTER TWO: INTRODUCTION                                          

2.1     Literature Review                                                                    24

2.2     Definition of Some Terms and Concept                                  29

2.2.1 Objective of Time Series                                                          29

2.2.2  Components of Time Series                                                    31

2.2.2.1 Trend or Secular Movement                                                 31

2.2.2.2        Cyclical Movement or Variation                                    32

2.2.2.3        Seasonal Movement or Variation                                  32

2.2.2.4        Irregular Movement or Variation                                   33

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY              

3.1     Time Series Graph                                                                            34

3.2     Forecasting                                                                              35

3.3     Akaike Information Criterions                                                36

3.4     Data Collection                                                                       38

3.5     Ways of Data Collection                                                                   39

CHPATER FOUR

4.1     Presentation of Data and Interpretation of Results                           42

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS                                                             

5.1     Summary                                                                                 66

5.2     Conclusions                                                                                      67

5.3     Recommendations                                                                             67

REFERENCES                                                                                69