Statistics Research Papers/Topics

Application Of Life Table Model In Studying Progress Of Public Primary School Pupils In Migori Sub County, Kenya

ABSTRACT Education progress plays a very important role in determining the future of a pupil and even in planning for the schools and education sector as a whole. Primary Education forms the basis of implementing Poverty Reduction Strategy by the government through the acquisition of basic literacy skills, which increases opportunities for employment and ability to be self-reliant, hence the need to monitor the pupils general progress from the time of entry in class one to graduation after th...

Application Of Auto-Regression Integrated Moving Avaerage Model To Forecast Tea Prices At Mombasa Tea Auction Center In Kenya

ABSTRACT Tea production is the mainstay of many people in Kenya. The contribution of tea sector to the Kenyan economy is enormous as it accounts for about 4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Favourable product prices act as a trigger for any commercial activity over time and also suggest sustainability of the activity. Tea is a very significant crop in Kenya and it is one of the major agricultural exports of the country. However, the industry has experienced many challenges such as stiff comp...

Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates In Kenya Using Time Series: A Case Of Usd/Kes Exchange Rates

ABSTRACT In October 1993, Kenya adopted a floating exchange rate system where the exchange rates are determined by forces of demand and supply for the local currency. Exchange rate forecasts are necessary to evaluate the foreign denominated cash flows involved in international transactions. Therefore exchange rate forecasting is important to evaluate the benefits and risks attached to the international business environment. This study therefore sought to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Intergra...

A Delayed Vaccination Model For Rotavirus

ABSTRACT Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis infection in infants and young children, occurring even with very high standard of hygiene. The disease spreads by contact with infected faeces and might also be transmitted through faecally-contaminated: food, water and respiratory droplets. Rota teq and Rotarix are the two licensed oral vaccine intervention for rotavirus. However, it takes time for the development of vaccineinduced immunity to complete, hence the need to ...

Analytic Solutions Of Call And Put Options Of Nonlinear Black-Scholes Equation With Transaction Costs And Price Slippage

Abstract A nonlinear Black-Scholes Partial Dierential Equation whose nonlinearity is as a result of transaction costs and a price slippage impact that lead to market illiquidity with feedback eects was studied. Most of the solutions obtained in option pricing especially using nonlinear equations are numerical which gives approximate option values. To get exact option values, analytic solutions for these equations have to be obtained. Analytic solutions to the nonlinear Black-Scholes Partial D...

An Analysis Of Patient Flow Using Markov Chains: A Case Of Kapsabet County Referral Hospital

ABSTRACT Hospital is an essential welfare of society. It provides management of illnesses through treatment and prevention interventions by medical and health professionals. Due to growing population and rise in chronic diseases, there is an increased demand for health care services. This causes congestion and overcrowding in most hospitals. Hospital overcrowding is a major problem to patients, hospital administration and to the general health workers. Hospitals in many jurisdictions struggle...

Determinants Of Under-Five Mortality In Namibia: An Analysis Of The 2013 Namibia Demographic And Health Survey Data

ABSTRACT This thesis reports on a statistical analysis on risk factors associated with under-five mortality in Namibia. Secondary data were obtained from the 2013 Namibia Demographic and Health Survey data. Children survival was measured by age at death and the event variable was whether the children were still alive or dead after the first five (years) of their lives. Variables included were maternal education, mother’s marital status, the age of the mother at first birth, preceding birth ...

Determinants Of Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Modeling Approach

ABSTRACT The research also examines the relationship between the ARDL procedure and the fully modified OLS approach of Phillips and Hansen to estimation of cointegrating relationship between all the variables, and economic growth, these results provide strong evidence in favor of a rehabilitation of the traditional ARDL approach to time Series econometric modelling. The ARDL approach has the additional advantage of yielding consistent estimates of the long-run co-efficient that is asympt...

Multivariate Approach To Time Series Model Identification

ABSTRACT This work suggests an exact and systematic model identification approach which is entirely new and addresses most of the challenges of existing methods. We developed quadratic discriminant functions for various orders of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. An Algorithm that is to be used alongside our functions was also developed. In achieving this, three hundred sets of time series data were simulated for the development of our functions. Another twenty five sets of simulat...

A Control Chart Based on Two-piece Normal Distribution Using Repetitive Sampling

Abstract In this manuscript, a control chart is designed for two-piece normal distribution using repetitive sampling. The necessary measures to determine the average run lengths for in control and out-of-control process are given. The average run lengths are presented for various specified parameters and shift constants. The efficiency of the proposed chart is compared with the existing control chart using single sampling. The application of the proposed chart is given with the help of an ex...

Queuing System At National Microfinance Bank, A Case Study Of Uluguru Branch, Morogoro Urban

ABSTRACT Statistics is one among the old and wide discipline spread across the global. As many studies and topics have been researched, published and presented in various set up and purpose. Some topics or areas of statistics are extensively covered in those researches in some areas. The study on queuing has not been done extensively in Tanzania. The queuing is a common practice to all public service centres where the demand surpass the supply. This study investigates the performance of queu...

Parameter Estimation Of A Class Of Hidden Markov Models Using Sequential Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization Algorithm

ABSTRACT Much research has been advanced in the development of Monte Carlo methods for stochastic processes. A particular focus is on sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters and particle smoothers) and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm which allows the estimation of a class of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) with nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model can be regarded as a nonlinear state space model. SV model has become increasingly pop...

Forecasting Performance Of Students In Mathematics In Certificate Secondary Education Examination (Csee) In Zanzibar

ABSTRACT This study has been conducted with the main objectives to investigate the pattern of students‟ performance in mathematics and to forecast the performance of students in mathematics in secondary schools in Zanzibar for next 6 years on the basis of best selected model. The study used secondary data of all 64,446 students from 123 schools of Zanzibar, who sat for final examination from 1986-2016. The yearly data of students' results were collected from Ministry of Education and Vocat...

Analysis Of Causes And Risk Factors Associated With Maternal Deaths In Namibia

ABSTRACT Maternal mortality is a major health concern in Namibia as it is the case in most countries. The rate at which women are dying due to pregnancy related causes is high and the cause as well as risk factors are not well explored. The main objective of this research was to identify the causes and risk factors associated with maternal mortality in Namibia and thus the study described the socio-demographic characteristics and three delays that lead to maternal deaths in Namibia. The paper...

Flexible Spatial Modelling Using Copula With An Application To Water, Sanitation And Hygiene (Wash) Indicators In Namibia

ABSTRACT Spatial modelling is one approach that can serve as a basic tool in identifying areas that need intervention. Understanding the spatial distribution of indicators is of vital importance, as it help with national planning and decision-making. Different models such as Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) can be used in spatial modelling. However, these models pose analytic and statistical inferential challenges especially when non-continuous and multivariate response are involved. Therefor...


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